Trade breakdown and trading advice for the European currency

A price test of 1.1510 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a short position. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1485.

As a reminder, yesterday following the Federal Reserve meeting, it became clear that the regulator is firmly committed to further monetary tightening, which has continued to support demand for the U.S. dollar today.

Further developments will largely depend on incoming U.S. macroeconomic data. In the second half of the day, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. Weekly jobless claims are one of the earliest indicators of labor market conditions. An increase in claims may signal rising layoffs and slowing economic growth, while a decline typically indicates the opposite — a strengthening labor market. For investors and analysts, this data serves as an important signal of consumer demand and overall economic activity.

On the other hand, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index measures business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Third Federal Reserve District. It includes surveys of manufacturers regarding new orders, production volume, employment, and other key indicators. Positive readings signal expansion, while negative values indicate contraction. The index dynamics can signal broader economic trends, and strong results would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar against the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches the 1.1486 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1521. At 1.1521, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further euro growth is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1451 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1486 and 1.1521 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1451 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1415, where I plan to exit and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of strong data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1486 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1451 and 1.1415 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected take-profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected take-profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and large volumes are traded.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a fundamentally losing intraday strategy.