The US economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, recovering from stagnation caused by the winter shutdown. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product increased by 2% year-over-year, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, although it fell short of the forecasted 2.2%.

This growth was bolstered by compensatory increases in government spending following a 43-day government shutdown, as well as a boom in the construction of data centers to support artificial intelligence needs. The IT infrastructure essentially offset the decline in consumer activity, which began in February amid the war in Iran.

A major negative signal was a sharp spike in prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reached 3.5% in March, reflecting a surge in gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, along with US and Israeli military actions against Tehran, continues to exert pressure on the energy market, fueling inflationary expectations.

The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile items and fuel, rose to 4.3% in the first quarter, surpassing market expectations of 4.1%. Analysts at CIBC describe this level as “uncomfortably high” for the Federal Reserve, raising questions about any potential easing of monetary policy.

Despite inflationary pressures, investors continue to view the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. The status of the United States as the largest exporter of energy creates an illusion of insulation from global shocks, ensuring a steady capital influx. However, experts predict further cooling of consumption, as American households are forced to reallocate budgets in favor of rising fuel costs, which is likely to slow the economy in the second quarter.