ব্যঙ্গাত্মক বর্ণনা এবং ফরেক্সের প্রবেশদ্বার বিন্যাস

World Bank warns global growth may slow to 2.5% in 2026 amid Middle East war

The World Bank (WB) sharply downgraded its outlook for the global economy, warning that a large‑scale armed conflict in the Middle East will slow world economic growth to 2.5% in 2026. That figure will be the weakest since the coronavirus pandemic, down from 2.9% recorded last year. In its report, World Bank economists said the protracted war has driven a sharp rise in key energy prices, accelerated inflation, and substantially increased borrowing costs in international financial markets. They expect two thirds of the world’s countries to face a marked deterioration in their medium‑term macroeconomic prospects.

The main reason for the revision was critical disruptions to oil supplies caused by the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. WB analysts forecast that the average Brent price this year will be $94 a barrel, some 36% above last year’s level. Additional pressure on the global system will come from higher fertilizer costs, which will inevitably trigger another round of food price increases. Against this backdrop, global inflation will accelerate to 4% from 3.3% a year earlier. Under a downside scenario that triggers financial instability, global GDP growth could fall as low as 1.3%.

The crisis will hit developing economies hardest, with growth slowing to 3.6%. The deepest contraction is expected in the Gulf countries, where business activity could almost come to a standstill. The economic outlook is further strained by a massive debt burden: public debt in developing countries has risen from 40% of GDP in 2010 to more than 70% today. Against this background, South Asia will remain the world’s locomotive, although its growth is expected to slow from 7% to 6.3%.

To mitigate the shock, the World Bank announced it stands ready to rapidly provide developing countries with $50–$60 billion in crisis financing. More than 30 countries are already developing joint protective measures with the institution. If the conflict escalates, the support amount could be increased to $100 billion. World Bank Group President Ajay Banga emphasized that the institution’s primary role in the current situation is to provide emergency liquidity to stabilize markets and to sustain structural reforms.

পিছনে