Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.57 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 159.84.

Yesterday, the US dollar rose sharply against the yen amid rumors of currency interventions. The Japanese Finance Minister hinted at the possibility of "bold measures" to stabilize the national currency, effectively opening the door to potential currency interventions. These comments came amid the Japanese yen approaching the critical level of 160 yen, which had previously led Japanese financial authorities to intervene in the market to support the national currency throughout 2024.

Statements from the Finance Minister typically serve as an indicator of the government's level of concern regarding the current economic situation. In this case, the emphasis on "bold measures" can be interpreted as a clear indication of Tokyo's readiness for more decisive actions than just verbal interventions. Based on historical experience, "bold measures" primarily refer to direct currency interventions, that is, buying yen in the open market using state foreign exchange reserves. The last such purchases were made with US assistance, and how it will proceed this time remains to be seen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 159.74 (green line on the chart), targeting a move towards 160.06 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.06, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.56 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 159.74 and 160.06.

Selling Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 159.56 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.30 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.74 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 159.56 and 159.30.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.