Capital spending on artificial intelligence development will remain the main driver of global economic growth in 2026. According to a new macroeconomic report from BofA Global Research — the first in the “AI Matters” series — investments in AI infrastructure will add roughly 0.4 percentage points to US GDP growth this year. However, analysts caution that the economic contribution of these technologies may begin to fade in 2027, although aggressive budgets at hyperscale IT firms could prompt upward revisions to short‑term forecasts.

The global investment cycle has long since moved beyond the US market. The United States and China are fiercely competing for dominance in the sector, using fundamentally different economic models. Washington retains an edge by fostering advanced models that leverage dynamic private capital and a deep research base. Beijing, by contrast, relies on state‑led scaling, cheap electricity, and tight central control over critical minerals needed for hardware production.

The main beneficiaries of this superpower race are key nodes in the global supply chain. BofA maintains a strong forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth of about 8% in 2026, calling the expansion of the AI sector the island’s primary economic catalyst. Despite geopolitical tension in the region, global demand for high‑tech semiconductors remains buoyant. Structural gains from redirected capital flows are also accruing to Mexico and South Korea, which are becoming increasingly integrated into the production of data‑center hardware. The economic effect of neural networks is no longer a local Silicon Valley phenomenon.

As the initial phase of infrastructure investment wraps up, attention shifts to assessing real productivity. BofA analysts note that the second stage of the cycle will show whether AI sparks a fundamental transformation in the labor market or mainly delivers gradual business process improvements. Success will depend on the speed with which new tools are adopted across the corporate sector.

While risks of widespread job losses remain in some industries, the report’s authors stress that a severe “skills challenge” will be the defining global trend of the late 2020s, determining national competitiveness.

Experts suppose that the peak of the AI investment cycle has not passed yet. Capital continues to flow into data‑center construction and specialized chip development. In this environment, investors are focusing on advanced economies capable of maintaining their role as indispensable nodes in the new global technological architecture.