Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.89 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's upward potential. Because of this, I did not buy dollars and missed the upward movement.

The war involving the US, Israel, and Iran may develop if Americans begin a ground operation. Potential military intervention will increase geopolitical tension, which is already leading to a decline in investor confidence. In the face of growing uncertainty, investors seeking safe havens will continue to withdraw funds from risk assets, including the Japanese yen, and purchase US dollars.

Despite the yen's significant decline to around 160 per dollar, the Bank of Japan is currently not paying attention to this and is not signaling any interventions, which could provoke a much stronger upward move for USD/JPY. Generally, at the level of 160 yen per dollar, the central bank intervenes, but so far, there has been no response. It seems everyone is waiting for clarity on the situation in the Middle East and is hesitant to make difficult decisions. The last time currency interventions strengthened the yen was helped by the United States. This time, it seems they are not focused on the yen for now.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches an entry point around 159.67 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 160.04 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.04, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-pip move back from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.36 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards opposing levels of 159.67 and 160.04 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 159.36 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.05 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.67 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards opposing levels of 159.36 and 159.05 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.