Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3413 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I did not sell and missed a small upward movement in the pair.

Weak UK services PMI data quickly brought sellers back into the market, so the pair never reached strong growth. This indicator, which is a key measure of the largest sector of the country's economy, showed a significant slowdown in activity compared to previous months. The drop of the index below 53, which had long been considered a level of solid growth, raised concerns among investors about the outlook for the UK economy, increasing selling pressure on the pound sterling. The current dynamics of the services PMI reflect not only domestic issues but also global trends driven by inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Further attention will be focused on the release of U.S. business activity indices. Fresh data on the manufacturing sector is expected, which serves as a barometer of industrial production and its outlook. At the same time, the PMI for the services sector will be released, covering everything from retail trade to financial operations, allowing an assessment of dynamics in this often more volatile part of the economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3408 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3445 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3445, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points). Growth in the pound can be expected today after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3386 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3408 and 1.3445 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks the 1.3386 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3350, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3408 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3386 and 1.3350 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.