The economic calendar for the upcoming week is packed with important releases that are sure to provoke strong volatility in the EUR/USD pair. The focus will be on inflation in the U.S. and the American labor market.

Weak February Non-Farm Payrolls unexpectedly surprised dollar bulls, but market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions have hardly changed. Traders still believe that the central bank will keep all monetary policy parameters unchanged at its spring meetings, while the probability of an interest rate cut in June remains estimated at 30-35%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In other words, "moderately hawkish" expectations have remained, despite the negative result of the headline NFP figure.

However, upcoming releases could tilt the scales toward the "doves," especially if they fall into the red zone.

Let's start with inflation. On Wednesday, March 11, we will learn the value of February's Consumer Price Index (CPI). As is well known, this is one of the key indicators of inflation, which slowed significantly in January. The overall CPI decreased to 2.4% year-on-year (from a previous value of 2.7%), while the core CPI fell to 2.5% (from a previous value of 2.6%).

According to most analysts' forecasts, the overall Consumer Price Index in February is expected to "speed up" slightly to 2.5%, while the core CPI is predicted to remain at the January level of 2.5%.

It is essential to recall the dynamics of January's Producer Price Index (PPI). The core PPI jumped in January to 3.6% year-on-year, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 3.0%. The structure of this report indicates a sharp rise in categories related to business services (logistics, insurance, auditing). As we know, these costs are included in the final price of almost any consumer good. This suggests that price increases are penetrating deeper into the economy—into the cost of services, equipment, and materials. Inflationary pressure at the producer level typically precedes an increase in consumer prices, hence the February CPI report could be in the green zone, providing additional support for the dollar.

However, if the Consumer Price Index unexpectedly moves closer to the target two percent level, the dollar will come under pressure—not only due to unmet expectations but also against the backdrop of recent statements from certain Fed representatives.

Let me remind you that the President of the New York Fed, John Williams—one of the most influential members of the Federal Reserve—voiced dovish messages this week, advocating further easing of monetary policy. According to him, the central bank should not allow monetary policy to become "becomes unintentionally too tight." He also expressed concern about the state of the American labor market, stating it is "in a state of low activity," suggesting hidden risks of a cooling economy.

It's worth noting that these remarks by Williams were made before the publication of February's Non-Farm Payrolls, which showed a reduction in employment of 90,000 and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%.

Given this "preview," the February CPI report holds special significance—if the release turns out in the red zone, the market will again discuss the prospects for an interest rate cut at the June meeting.

The same applies to the core PCE index, the January value of which we will learn on Friday, March 13. As is well known, this is the Fed's most significant inflation indicator. It accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year in December, and analysts expect it to further increase to 3.1% in January. If this indicator unexpectedly declines (i.e., falls within the 2-3% range), the dollar will face strong pressure.

U.S. labor market data will also affect the EUR/USD pair. For example, the Unemployment Claims report. By the end of the current week, initial unemployment claims are expected to rise by 216,000. The indicator remained steady at a similar level over the past two weeks (213,000). The dollar will only come under pressure if the indicator exceeds the target of 230,000.

On the following day—Friday—JOLTS data will be published. Over the past two months, this figure has shown a downward trend, reflecting a cooling of the American labor market. In December, the number of private-sector job openings fell to just 6.54 million—the lowest level since September 2020. The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed has decreased to 0.87 (for comparison, in 2022, there were an average of two job openings for every unemployed person).

According to forecasts, January's JOLTS will show an upward trend, rising to 6.84 million. While this is still a relatively low level by historical standards, the very fact of its growth could support the dollar. However, if the downward trend continues, EUR/USD buyers will have another fundamental trump card.

Also on Friday, we will learn the second estimate of U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the first estimate, U.S. GDP grew by 1.4%, following a 4.4% increase in the third quarter. Most experts believe that the second estimate will align with the initial one. If, contrary to expectations, the result is revised upward, the dollar will enjoy increased demand amid strengthened hawkish sentiment.

Therefore, the key releases of the upcoming week could have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. Last week, the pair traded within a range of 1.1550 – 1.1640, bouncing back and forth from its boundaries. If the aforementioned reports resonate (i.e., clearly support or oppose the greenback), sellers and buyers will attempt to "break out" of this corridor. However, if the indicators come in at forecast levels or reflect contradictory data (for example, a slowdown in CPI but an increase in PCE), the pair will likely remain within the specified price range.