Only the US could carry out a second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But does that make sense? Even if there is no logic to it, if we consider who the President of America is, the blockade could still be implemented. What are the dangers of an American naval blockade? The global oil deficit would increase significantly, prices would rise even higher, economic growth would continue to slow, and inflation would rise. If the first point doesn't affect America, the remaining three will.

In the US, economic growth fell to 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The age of Donald Trump's American Greatness is nowhere in sight, and the growth rates of the American economy under the Republican are lower than those during the term of Joe Biden, whom many blame for all sins. Inflation began to accelerate, rising to 3.3% in March. Naturally, under current circumstances, there is no talk of easing monetary policy. Without a lowering of interest rates, the US economy will not accelerate at the pace needed by Trump for the American nation to build him a personal "Taj Mahal" or the "Pyramid of Cheops."

Essentially, Trump is digging his own grave by initiating military operations in the Middle East. While it may seem that America is currently making more money from selling energy resources, it is important to understand that the government of the country, the state, receives this money. Meanwhile, ordinary American consumers are essentially paying out of their pockets for Trump's decisions. Last year, they paid an estimated $150-300 billion in tariffs, and this year they will pay hundreds of billions more for higher-priced fuel and other products, goods, and services tied to oil and gas prices. Even if it relates to hairdressing services, prices will rise because heating during the winter relies on gas, and the cost of transporting necessary materials will increase due to rising fuel prices.

Therefore, the American nation will gain no dividends from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. I will set aside the fact that a blockade by military vessels is akin to providing Iranian military forces with the precise coordinates of every US warship. Strikes will follow regardless. Is Trump really prepared to almost certainly lose his fleet? Yet, the "Trump blockade" is a possibility. After all, the American president has made many controversial decisions. This is precisely his hallmark—his decisions are unpredictable.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (bottom picture), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave pattern appears quite complete and can take on a more complex, extended form only if a lasting ceasefire is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave pattern may begin from the current positions.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an extension in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not cause a new crash of the instrument in the near future, then we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound may rise to levels of 1.3511 and 1.3594, corresponding to the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. If a ceasefire is eventually reached, the corrective segment of the trend may turn into an impulsive one.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade; they often signal changes.
2. If there is market uncertainty, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never will be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.