Today, oil returned to last Friday's highs. Brent exceeded $84 per barrel after a more than 5 percent increase over the previous three sessions, while WTI approached $79. The reason for the sustained rise is a combination of two factors: Iran and Oman still cannot reach an agreement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi militants have claimed responsibility for the attack on a Saudi oil refinery near the Red Sea.

The diplomatic picture remains contradictory. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi stated over the weekend that an agreement with Oman to establish a maritime route through the strait is very close. Still, he ruled out direct negotiations with the US at this time due to violations of the temporary peace agreement reached in June. More importantly for the market, he warned that any agreement would not lead to an immediate resumption of movement along the waterway, thereby cooling hopes for a quick recovery of disrupted energy flows.

Tehran's conditions, confirmed on Saturday, explain why the deal is stalled. For the full reopening of the strait, Iran demands the cessation of the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for military damage. This fundamentally conflicts with Washington's position, which has repeatedly stated its involvement in negotiations regarding the management of the strait, which Tehran itself disputes. President Trump has noticeably softened his tone, stating on Sunday that the US is now acting cautiously. However, just a few weeks ago he repeatedly threatened massive strikes against Iran, which he later backed away from.

It is clear that while we do not see actual normalization of flows, geopolitical risks will support oil prices at their current levels. The reality also remains concerning. As I noted above, over the past weekend, yet another tanker belonging to Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on an oil refinery in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $78.70. This will allow targeting $81.11, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $83.56. In the event of oil falling, bears will attempt to take control over $76.30. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push Oil down to a low of $73.79, with the prospect of reaching $71.69.