Trade Review and Recommendations for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1436 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

The euro enters the second half of the day without support from US economic data, as no major releases or speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled. Normally, such events shape interest rate expectations and determine the direction of the US dollar. In their absence, however, the market's focus shifts to geopolitical developments.

The situation in the Middle East and any unexpected statements from Donald Trump are likely to be the key factors capable of driving market volatility at the end of the week and influencing the balance of power in the euro-dollar pair. As long as relative calm persists, demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset is likely to remain strong, limiting the euro's upward potential.

For the euro to regain the initiative, either a meaningful improvement in the geopolitical environment or developments that reduce demand for the US dollar will be required. Otherwise, EUR/USD is likely to spend the remainder of the day trading within a narrow range, responding to external headlines rather than domestic catalysts.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches 1.1437 (the green line on the chart), targeting 1.1459. At 1.1459, I intend to close my long positions and consider opening short positions, anticipating a 30–35 point reversal from the entry point. A strong rally in the euro appears unlikely today.

Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1422 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.1437 and 1.1459 may be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1422 (the red line on the chart). The downward target will be 1.1397, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately consider opening long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to persist.

Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1437 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1422 and 1.1397 may be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – entry level for long positions.
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry level for short positions.
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay close attention to overbought and oversold conditions.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution when making trading decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental data to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, particularly if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.

Finally, remember that successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.