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The GBP/USD pair also traded very sluggishly on Monday. The market found no compelling reasons to open positions ahead of several blocks of important data and fundamental events in the US, EU, and the UK. Reports will begin publication today. If interesting reports are released in the Eurozone, they are not particularly important, whereas in the UK, they are indeed crucial. For example, the unemployment rate, which has been rising recently, directly affects the Bank of England's monetary policy. The next meeting of the BoE is scheduled for this Thursday, and in the meantime, UK inflation will also be published, which significantly influences the Bank's key rate. Not to mention the US Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports, which are not only important for the Federal Reserve but have not been published for several months. Thus, it looks like we will see sharp, strong movements not only today but throughout the week.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, no trading signals were formed as the price did not approach any significant levels. Therefore, there were no grounds for novice traders to open trades for the second consecutive day.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a local upward trend. As mentioned, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we also anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could lead the pair to the 1.4000 mark in the coming months.
On Tuesday, novice traders can look for new long positions if the price bounces off the trend line or the 1.3319-1.3331 area, targeting 1.3413-1.3421. If the specified area is broken, short positions will become relevant with a target at 1.3212. However, today the macroeconomic background will take precedence over the technical picture.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the levels to consider for trading are 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Tuesday, important reports concerning business activity, unemployment, the number of unemployed, and wages are scheduled in the UK. In the US, even more significant reports, including Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as less critical reports such as ADP and S&P business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors, will be released.
Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.