Today, Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the 200-day EMA and 100-day SMA resistance levels. It appears that traders are not ready to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for new information on the situation in the Middle East and the release of the latest US inflation data this week.

Disappointing results from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report have reduced investors' expectations of an immediate interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. This circumstance prevents the US dollar from benefiting from its modest gains the previous day, creating positive conditions for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, market participants continue to price in the possibility of an interest rate hike by the US central bank by the end of the year amid inflationary risks caused by higher oil prices due to conflicts with Iran.

Regarding the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran has indicated that it is unwilling to negotiate with Trump, stating its intention to wait until the end of his presidential term on January 20, 2029, which has weakened hopes for the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains disrupted due to a naval blockade carried out by Saudi Arabia with the involvement of Iran-backed Houthis. This continues to contribute to higher oil prices, with prices reaching weekly highs and fueling inflation concerns.On Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack noted that current interest rates are not exerting a significant restraining effect on the economy and that several rate hikes will be required in the future, emphasizing that the longer the Fed delays making changes, the further it will fall behind its 2% inflation target.

Therefore, traders should focus primarily on the US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These data may provide clues about the Fed's future approach and influence the US dollar and the EUR/USD pair.

According to analysts at TD Securities, recent inflation dynamics are likely to prompt the Fed to continue closely monitoring the August data ahead of its September meeting, confirming the central bank's data-dependent approach. The bank also highlighted the importance of the upcoming producer price data, noting that it will be a key factor in assessing consumer prices, which is important for developing a broader picture of inflation analyzed by the Fed.

From a technical perspective, the pair has failed to break through its resistance levels, falling toward support near the 9-day EMA. If this level fails to hold, prices could decline toward the round level of 1.1500, near the 14-day and 50-day EMAs. However, as long as the oscillators remain positive, the bulls still have the advantage. The 200-day EMA and 100-day SMA remain the resistance levels.