Therefore, the US president desperately needs the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, which would boost the economy. I should also remind you that Americans have not forgotten how last year the US government effectively "cost" them between $150 billion and $300 billion. Tariffs were collected and recognized as illegal, but no one plans to return them. And Donald Trump has already introduced new ones and is preparing to continue the trade war in 2026.

Thus, the key question for the dollar in the coming months will be the state of the US labor market and the Fed's monetary policy. There is no need to speculate about the labor market. It is simply a matter of obtaining the Nonfarm Payrolls data and unemployment rates and analyzing them without bias. However, how Trump or Warsh plans to persuade the FOMC committee to resume the cycle of monetary easing is the most interesting question.

Let me remind you that last year, under quite questionable circumstances, the head of the Fed, Adrienne Kugler, left her position. It is Stephen Miran who took her place, a name that elicits smiles from many. Miran voted for interest rate cuts at every meeting, even if he stood alone. Now, he might be accompanied by Kevin Warsh. However, there is no so-called subordination within the Fed. In simple terms, the president of the FOMC cannot force other governors to vote as he or Donald Trump would like.

The most interesting part is that Jerome Powell will remain the Fed's chair and oversee the entire FOMC. This is merely my assumption, but why else would Powell need to stay on the committee? In my view, he will serve as a "shadow leader." Formally, the central bank will be headed by Warsh, but in practice, it will be Powell. Therefore, at best, only two of the twelve Fed governors will vote for a rate cut.

What can Trump do in this case? The same thing he did last year. Try to fire all those politicians who do not agree with his vision of monetary policy. However, he has not been able to fire Lisa Cook even through the courts. Nor Powell, from whom the Department of Justice dropped all charges. Therefore, the probability of Trump winning over the Fed is practically zero. Only a decline in US inflation will allow the president to achieve low rates. During the first few months of 2026, Trump did everything to ensure that inflation rose significantly above the Fed's target level.

Wave Picture of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (as shown in the lower image), and in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and may take on a more complex, elongated form only if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen a corrective wave, and I expect a new upward movement from current levels with targets around the 19 figure.

Wave Picture of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts that may complete soon. If this is indeed the case, we should expect the formation of a corrective wave set. Therefore, the basic scenario for the coming days is an increase towards the 37 figure. What happens next will depend on geopolitical factors. Following an impulsive downward structure, we have seen an impulsive upward movement, suggesting the instrument may be at the very beginning of an upward segment of a larger trend.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter at all.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.