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13.08.2026 08:37 AMThe price test at 1.1549 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
The slowdown in American inflation pushed the dollar down and the euro up, but only briefly, and a substantial rise in the pair did not materialize. The annual Consumer Price Index dropped to 3.4% from June's 3.5%, while core inflation fell to 2.5% from 2.6%, which temporarily weakened the case for a tough Federal Reserve policy. However, the market quickly cooled off because the monthly figures exactly matched forecasts and offered no surprises. This alignment with expectations was the key to the restrained reaction. The overall CPI grew by 0.1% after a decline of 0.4% the previous month, while the core index added 0.2%, and both figures fell right in line with forecasts. Since there was no sharp deviation, the market had no reason to make major bets against the dollar, and the report eased some of the tension that had built up after the Fed's July meeting.
The single currency took advantage of the dollar's short-term weakness but was unable to escalate the advance. The EUR/USD pair gained moderately, reflecting a slowdown in inflation, but the absence of surprises in the data limited the pair's growth potential.
Today, the euro enters the first half of the day with a focus on the Eurozone's industrial production publication, which will be the key guide for the session. Industrial production shows how much product enterprises in the region have produced. It is regarded as a significant indicator of economic activity, as its growth signals business confidence and supports the single currency through expectations of European Central Bank rate hikes. At the same time, the market primarily reacts to deviations between actual figures and the forecast.
Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1530 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1556. I plan to exit the market at 1.1556 and also sell the euro back in anticipation of a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. I can only expect euro growth after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1520 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to opposing levels 1.1530 and 1.1556 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1520 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.195, where I plan to exit the market and buy back immediately (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data is poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1530, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.1520 and 1.1495 can be expected.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
