Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1806 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the euro's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Data from the University of Michigan on U.S. inflation expectations and speeches by Fed officials exerted slight pressure on the dollar at the end of last week. A decline in inflation expectations is often interpreted as a sign of slowing price growth in the economy. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its monetary policy, especially given ongoing challenges in the U.S. labor market. On one hand, slowing inflation can increase consumer purchasing power and reduce business costs. However, if the decline in prices is too rapid, it can signal a potential slowdown in economic growth or even the risk of deflation. Yet, considering the rapidly weakening American dollar recently, this risk appears unlikely.

Today, we are expecting the release of the Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a speech by the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. The monthly Sentix survey among institutional investors is unlikely to significantly affect the volatility of the EUR/USD pair. However, a significant drop in the index may signal investor caution amid slowing economic growth. Concurrently with the release of the economic indicators, market participants will focus their attention on Joachim Nagel's speech. As the head of the central bank of the Eurozone's leading economy, his statements often signal potential future policies of the European Central Bank. Investors will closely examine his words for hints on possible changes in key interest rates. Any changes in the tone of his statements or indications of potential course adjustments may provoke significant market activity.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros at a price around 1.1857 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1894. At point 1.1894, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be anticipated after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1830 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise can be expected to opposing levels of 1.1857 and 1.1894.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1830 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1793, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1857 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to opposing levels of 1.1830 and 1.1793.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.