Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.26 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

In the near term, data on the U.S. goods trade balance and the Chicago PMI index are expected to be released. In addition, a speech by Michelle Bowman is scheduled. Statements by FOMC members, such as those expected from Michelle Bowman, provide financial market participants with valuable insights into regulators' assessment of the current economic situation and their future monetary policy plans amid the ongoing complex geopolitical environment.

Comments on inflation, employment, and economic growth may influence expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of changes in key U.S. interest rates. However, the main impact on the USD/JPY pair will come from news regarding progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at reaching a peace agreement. Any response from Trump to the proposal submitted by Tehran could trigger a sharp increase in market volatility.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

BUY SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.37 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 159.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.84, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A rise in the pair today may occur in case of negative news regarding the agreement and strong U.S. economic data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.23 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 159.37 and 159.84 can be expected.

SELL SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.23 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.95, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair today may return if weak economic data is released. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.37 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.23 and 158.95 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and trading volumes are too large.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.